Welcome
Picture from Ullrika Sahlin.
Welcome to EFSA's Tutorial in Probabilistic Judgements for Expert Knowledge Elicitation (EKE)!Note that completing this Registration details form is required to access the course content. Until it is submitted, access to the e-learning will remain restricted. Read carefully the data protection notice for the present form.
Please start your learning by clicking on the section for "Module 1" below, and selecting the H5P "Introduction to Probabilistic Judgements".
Quiz questions and activities are provided throughout to test your knowledge. Quizzes are embedded into presentations in module 1-3, and external in module 1, 2 and 4. Not all activity content is visible at first glance.
To progress through the course, you must have viewed the content in each module, and answer correctly in the final quizzes. Modules will only be unlocked upon achieving the requirements and the certificate of completion will only be available upon meeting these conditions. Don't worry - you can retake the quiz as many times as necessary to ensure you fully understand each module before progressing.
- The first module introduces probabilistic judgements in Expert Knowledge Elicitation (EKE), covering key concepts such as uncertainty versus variability, subjective probability, probability distributions, and the role of expert judgement in EFSA assessments. It also highlights how biases and heuristics can influence judgements and explains how uncertainty can be quantified using subjective probability and represented through probability distributions.
- The second module introduces methods for eliciting expert judgements, including how the type of quantity of interest shapes the elicitation approach and how evidence dossiers support and justify these judgements. It also explains how individual judgements are gathered and combined into group consensus using behavioural or mathematical aggregation, with specific techniques for both categorical and continuous uncertainties.
- In the third module, you have the possibility to practice making probabilistic judgements.
- The final module presents recommendations, challenges, and opportunities related to probabilistic expert judgements, with a focus on how to effectively communicate uncertainty using EFSA guidance. It also addresses common concerns about expert elicitation, emphasizing that when conducted properly, probabilistic approaches are robust and provide valuable advantages for decision-making.
Full credits of images and references included in the E-learning, as well as other helpful resources, are provided under the "Resources" section on the right.
If you experience any technical issues with the E-learning, please contact the EFSA KNOW Unit (know_support@efsa.europa.eu).
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